Everyone wants a crystal ball right now. The headlines say spending is up. Traffic looks steady. On paper, retail seems fine. But what’s actually driving performance is harder to see—and that’s where the best operators are separating themselves.
This week’s blog is about that idea: not predicting the future, but seeing what’s already happening more clearly. Because the retailers pulling ahead aren’t guessing what comes next—they’ve built visibility into what’s happening right now, especially in the moments most others miss.
In this week’s newsletter, we’re breaking down what the latest retail data is really telling us, how customer behavior is shifting beneath the surface, and where the biggest opportunities are hiding inside the traffic you already have.
Today's Rundown
Here's a quick glimpse of what is in this week's newsletter.
Easter Sales Predictions: See why experts are predicting this Easter to have the highest sales ever recorded.
Brick-and-mortar: New store openings now outpace closures as retailers rethink the role of physical locations in a post-digital-first world.
Case Study: See how this furniture retailer gained 5 conversion points in a down market.
Notable News
🛍️ Spending Is Up. So Is the Bar
Easter spending is expected to hit a record $24.9B in 2026, up from $24B in 2023, with consumers planning to spend an average of $195.59 per person—the highest ever recorded. And it’s not just a few categories driving that number. 92% of shoppers plan to buy candy, 90% food, 64% gifts, 53% decorations, and 51% clothing, with food alone accounting for $7.5B in spend.
Where it gets interesting is how they’re shopping. 55% of consumers say they’ll buy from discount stores (still the top destination), followed by 42% at department stores and 34% online—reinforcing that even in a digital world, in-store still plays a major role, especially when value is clear. And despite broader economic pressure, 80% of consumers still plan to celebrate, with more than half of non-celebrators saying they’ll take advantage of Easter-related sales anyway.
The takeaway isn’t just that people are spending—it’s how intentional that spending has become. Customers are showing up with a purpose, a plan, and a higher bar for what earns their dollars. The traffic is there. The opportunity is there. But converting it is becoming less about demand—and more about execution.
Notable News
Trakwell's Most Accurate Model Is Here
Our latest tracking model is here — and it’s a big upgrade.
The new upgrade eliminates shadow interference and duplicate counts entirely, pushing counting accuracy up to 100%. That means cleaner data, truer conversion rates, and fewer question marks in your reporting.
If you’re interested in upgrading your store, email us at support@trakwell.ai and we’ll take it from there.
🛍️ From Marketplace to Showroom—and a Surprise
A vintage furniture seller in Brooklyn started by flipping pieces on Facebook Marketplace, building a following under the name “Good Vintage” before opening a 1,700-square-foot storefront. What surprised her wasn’t demand—it was what people bought once they could see it in person.
She assumed large items like sofas would be the hardest to move. Instead, they became the fastest sellers, with some pieces selling in as little as three hours. Even eight-seat sectionals—in a city full of small apartments—were moving quickly.
The difference wasn’t the product. It was the environment. Online, customers scrolled. In-store, she staged everything like a real apartment—inviting people to sit, experience, and imagine it in their own space. That shift changed behavior.
That’s the blind spot. You can see what sold online. You can see what sold in-store. But what you can’t see—unless you’re looking for it—is why the same product performs completely differently depending on how customers experience it.
Retail Snippets
Luxury Reset: Saks Global is set to exit bankruptcy this summer with $500M in new financing, after closing underperforming stores and cutting costs to rebuild profitability.
Furniture Slowdown: Furniture sales have now declined for four straight months, down 4.8% year-to-date, as housing softness and cautious consumer spending continue to pressure the category.
Expansion Despite Pressure: Goodwill is opening new locations and planning 100 more in 2026 after processing 300M transactions last year, showing value-driven retail continues to gain momentum.
