Trees, Nuts, and Walkaways: Black Friday’s Hidden Economics

How was your 2025 Black Friday?

TrakWell data shows year-over-year numbers were a mixed bag of nuts—but mostly up.

Furniture stores outperformed last year across most metrics, while mattress stores saw a softer weekend compared to their strong 2024 results.

In furniture, Black Friday average ticket jumped from $2,100 in 2024 to $2,546 in 2025, and total weekend conversion held strong at 56–61% despite lower traffic. In mattress, Black Friday conversion dipped from 75% last year to 70% this year, and overall traffic was lighter across the weekend, leading to lower total revenue.

Speaking of nuts, did you know squirrels don’t find approximately 40 to 70 percent of the nuts they hide?

Ironically, 40 to 70 percent is the same range of walkaways most furniture and mattress retailers experience.

The good news is, some of the hidden nuts squirrels don’t find turn into trees.

What happens to your customers who walk away without buying? Do they become someone else’s tree?

What we do know is that the ones who come back typically spend 50 percent more.

That’s the shade from seeds planted on a previous visit.

There’s a Greek proverb that goes: “A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they will never sit under.”

One of the first things that impressed me about furniture and mattress retailers is how the great ones are generations old—still casting the shelter of deep roots across the communities they serve.

Here’s to those great men who planted those first trees—and here’s to the generations to come that will keep on planting.

Look out for the full report in tomorrow’s newsletter

And finally, congratulations to Jack Steger for his winning mashup: “LOLA”—Little Old Lady Sofa (or Chair).

And if you didn’t read it, here’s the blog titled Mashups that Matter.

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